A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
